| — by Paul Lo, 2RedBeans.com | [ English | 中文 ] |
Every now and then we heard people saying that there are many more single males in the Silicon Valley or Bay Area than single females, especially within the younger age groups. Among Chinese male, the perception seems to be particularly extreme. Some even claimed that the ratio is many-to-one. While there are many factors that contribute to such perception than the actual numbers alone (some of such factors are covered in my other blog: Male-Female Ratio: The "Effective Pool"), it would be interesting to see whether there is really such a big difference in number. So I did a deep dive into the recent census data on the Chinese population in the various counties within the San Francisco Bay Area and across U.S. and found that the numbers seem to be very different from what many people believe.
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| Figure 1. Male-to-Female ratios among Chinese singles in two key age ranges in Bay Area vs. U.S. (Source: U.S. Census 2010) |
Here are some of the basic findings from the study:
- There is very little difference in the male-female ratios among Chinese singles in the Bay Area compared to U.S. as a whole whether among the younger or older age categories. The differences are generally within 1 to 2 percentage points. The trends we are seeing seem to be common across the country, rather than a Bay Area specific phenomenon.
- Even after adjusting for the effect of interracial marriages, male-female ratios on the remaining Chinese singles population only changes by about 1% - 2% and the overall trends stay the same.
- There are actually more Chinese female in total than Chinese male for every age group above 25, whether in Bay Area or across U.S., even though the trends for singles are different.
- There are generally a few percentage points more Chinese single male than single female under 40, followed by a reversal on the ratio with more and more female returning back to the singles pool due to a sharp increase in the number of divorced female from age 30 onwards.
Here “singles” are defined as people who are never married, divorced, or widowed (basically anyone who is not married or separated).
More Chinese Female Than Male in Total After 25
As shown in the graph below, for every age group above 25, there is consistently more Chinese female than male in the Bay Area.
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| Figure 2. Total number of Chinese male/female in Bay Area (including both single and married) for each age group (Source: U.S. Census 2010) |
The same trend is observed for the Chinese population across U.S (see U.S. graph here).
The higher percentage of male among young Chinese singles in U.S. seem to be due to the fact that female tend to get married sooner, have older spouse, and more likely to marry non-Chinese, but as people get older the trend is gradually reversed.
The trend above, however, seems to be specific to the Chinese population. As we look at the total population across all races, there are more male than female until age 55 in the Bay Area, and until age 35 for U.S. as a whole (see All Races graph for: Bay Area or U.S.).
Effect of Interracial Marriages
A minor portion of Chinese singles would be expected to marry a non-Chinese based on our previous study (18.5% of Chinese female who got married was with a non-Chinese spouse, compared to the 10.5% for married Chinese male to have a non-Chinese spouse). However, if we exclude the expected portions of the population who may engage in interracial marriage from our pool, the male-female ratios of the remaining Chinese singles population in U.S. only changes by about 1% - 2%.
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| Figure 3. Adjusted Male-to-Female ratios among Chinese singles in two key age ranges in Bay Area vs. U.S., excluding those who would likely marry a non-Chinese (Source: U.S. Census 2010) |
So for Chinese singles under 40, male on average does seem to have a higher chance of being left out in the pool (about 16% of single male for Bay Area and 14% for U.S.). However, in practice there are many factors that can affect an individual’s chance of finding a romantic partner that are arguably much more relevant (e.g. see my other blog).
Reversal of Single Male-Female Ratios from Late-30s / 40
As shown previously, we also see a general reversal of male-female ratio starting from around the age of 40. Originally, I was wondering whether we had blended too many age groups into a large bucket, so we also plotted the data over the more fine-grained age groups and we found that the trend is fairly consistent.
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| Figure 4. Percentage of Chinese male singles (among Chinese singles) within more fine-grained age groups (Source: U.S. Census 2010) |
There are generally a few percentage points more Chinese male singles than Chinese female singles under the age of 40. The numbers generally do not change very much until we get passed the 35 – 39 age range, where there is a consistent drop in the percentage of single males within their respective age groups compared to single females. Given the life expectancy of people nowadays, Chinese American generally live well beyond 70 years (though death rate starts accelerating from around the age of 50). The sharp increase in the percentage of single females beyond the 35 – 39 age group seem to be due to a sudden surge of divorced female from the 30s onward (more than double the percentage of divorced male at the peak), resulting in many more female returning to the singles pool than their male counterparts.
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| Figure 5. Number of divorced Chinese female vs. divorced male in different age groups among Chinese in U.S. (Source: U.S. Census 2010) |
The trend and proportion of people on divorced female vs. male in the Bay Area is very similar (see graph here).
The exact reason for the higher percentage of divorced female than divorced male is unknown, but it could be caused by the fact there are more Chinese female than male in the first place, and a higher likelihood of a divorced male getting married again especially at older ages.
More than 88% of Chinese Male Are Married by Their 60s
The percentage of Chinese male who are married catches up with those of Chinese female after 40 whether in the Bay Area or U.S. as a whole. Since then, the percentage continues to go up for Chinese male to about 88% through their 60s, while an opposite trend is observed for Chinese female, as significantly more female become divorced or widowed.
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| Figure 6. Percentage of Chinese who are married in Bay Area for each gender (Source: U.S. Census 2010) |
The same trend is observed for Chinese population across U.S (see U.S. graph here).
Chinese also has much higher marriage rate compared to the general population across all races above age 30 (see All Races graph for: Bay Area or U.S.).
Effect of the Widowed
From age 50 onwards, there is a sharp increase in the percentage of Chinese female that became widowed, which is several times that of Chinese male. This greatly contributes to the continual decrease in male-female ratio in older age groups.
The trend and proportion of people on widowed female vs male in the Bay Area is very similar to U.S. as a whole. See graph for: Bay Area or U.S.
Final Notes
As shown above, the male-female ratio is not as extreme as some people thought, whether in Silicon Valley or across U.S. When people talked about male-female ratio in the context of dating, the motivation was often to point out the difficulty of certain category of people in finding a romantic partner in a given society. However, there are other factors than the actual male-female ratio that are sometimes more relevant. For further details, you may read my other blog, Male-Female Ratio: The "Effective Pool".
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